Ponder me this, /r/econ: Someone graduating from high school now will have far greater job security going to vocational school for a skilled manual trade, like plumbing or electrical, than with any four-year bachelor's degree. True or false?

US_expat · 1 year

Like all good economists, the answer is "It depends." The most recent employment numbers suggest that secondary and more importantly tertiary educated citizens are still getting and keeping jobs. With low interest rates, a housing market with historically low prices and the prospect of stable employment, many analysts are forecasting a good run for college graduates.

However, there will always be demand for good, skilled tradespeople. Someone needs to do the plumbing and electrical work in the houses that college graduates are buying. In addition the recent 50 billion dollars for infrastructure should allow a lot of tradies to make a comfortable living. Furthermore, the demand for skilled industrial tradespeople in countries like Australia is driving wages up to historical rates. Learn how to weld, become a pipe fitter and migrate to Western Australia. A project I worked on there recently was paying 200 AUD/an hour (about 180/hour USD) to skilled welders.

osiris99 · 1 year

As long as your career choice is non-fungible, you'll always have greater job security than if your job can be exported. But this has always been true.

LWRellim · 1 year

Nah you want job security, think Mortician -- in the coming decades there are MILLIONS of Baby Boomers who are gonna begin dying off in droves.

Alternate lines of work include: Casket Maker, Grave Digger, etc. And then of course there will be plenty of need prior to that for Nursing Home and Hospice workers -- emptying bedpans, changing bedsheets, bandaging bedsores, giving sponge-baths (and occasionally hemlock injections), etc.

Probably a brisk business for Estate Auctioneers -- Boomers have just tons and tons of crap piled up -- which probably also means jobs in salvage and recycling as most of their crap won't be worth much.

johnmoney · 1 year

Job security is a figment of your imagination. There are plenty of manual trades that are out of work right now.

Vocational school and/or a four-years bachelor's degree are both great depending on what your career aspirations are.

komphwasf3 · 1 year

100% depends on the person. Most likely if someone relies on the degree or vocational training solely for opening doors won't succeed. The person who leverages their degree or vocational training will exceed all expectations.

shilabula · 1 year

False - plumbing and electrical very much rely on the housing industry - which is absolutely fucked - last year there was about 600k starts vs 1.7MM in 2006 . The unemployment rate in the construction industry is 27%. Stick with your flexible academic education and delay specific training for as long as possible.

derekaw · 1 year

There is something I do know, 'tradies' are sexy.

lee1026 · 1 year

Most likely true. Efficient market theory suggest that the overall expected satisfaction should be the same no matter what you do, but a lot of people are sentimental about college, so the earnings should be higher in the trades.

Obviously, it depends on your own abilities.

urlgray · 1 year

I work at a Vocational School in Los Angeles that teaches multiple trades and I would have to say that it is my impression that we are having a much better time getting people employed than our counterparts in Academia. Vocational education is experiencing a boom as industry has been targeted by the Obama administration as a source of economic growth that can lead to recovery. We are receiving a lot of funding from the federal government and our facilities are quite state-of-the-art. Students attending my facility can receive financial aid that enables them to be outfitted with all of their equipment, and pay all of their tuition and fees, at no cost to the student (if they qualify). I have listed the trades I see as those experiencing the most growth, and recieving the most funding below:

Welding - This department has the highest budget on my campus, and is another one that has a high chance of employment for those who get certified (even non-certified welders can find employment, but you will probably make less than half of what a certified welder will, and job security can be more of an issue). Most jobs are high paying, up to 80K a year. A few asides for those interested in Welding; for the most part, asbestos has been phased out of most workplaces, and it's danger is mitigated if the Welder takes proper precautions. This applies as well to cases of Phosgene gas exposure. As mentioned in the article listed by Sniff below, the welder used automotive brake cleaner to prep his material, i.e. he did it wrong. Doing anything wrong, especially things like welding, can lead to injury. It should be noted that Welding is a skill that has applications in multiple industries, and I would suggest any tradesman in the Automotive, Manufacturing, HVAC, and construction industries take at least one basic course in welding.

Manufacturing Technology - At my facility this department is essentially a cross between Electronics and Machine Tool design classes. Students with a certification in this discipline can obtain jobs in a wide variety of industries, and have a high rate of employment. If you like computers, and are interested in technology, this is a fascinating field that is continuing to grow.

Cosmetology - Yes this falls under Vocational ed, and is taught at my facility as well. This is a thriving industry, proving that, despite this economy, women will always get their hair did. Despite the fact that it is an industry dominated by women, I wouldn't scratch it off your list of potential jobs until you give it a look. Most of the skills learned are fairly easy to pick up, and you will find yourself constantly surrounded by attractive women. If you can handle the chirping and aren't afraid of getting hit on by gay men, you can find yourself doing well in a beauty parlor or spa, or in your own shop.

Nursing - High paying, benefit-laden jobs are almost 100% guaranteed for those who complete any RN nursing program. Most hospitals in my area are so strapped for nurses that they import RN's from other countries, most notably the Phillipines. This is hard work though, and not for the feint of heart....you will be wiping other people's asses.

HVAC/Building Automation Systems - Another great job for those who are computer literate. This industry is highly impacted by environmental initiatives involving Solar Power, and automated power-management and climate control technologies. If you want to be at the forefront of the green revolution and are tech-savvy, I suggest looking at a job in this field.

Nolibertarian · 1 year

That would be False!

zorno · 1 year

Just a quick note on plumbing... they have a new style of pipe that is semi-bendable and made from plastic called Pex.

http://www.pexsupply.com/pex?gclid=CK29pvm29aMCFVw65QodNGKB3A

Because of this product, I am replacing all of the pipes in my house by myself, instead of calling a plumber. My boss flips houses and did all the plumbing for each house he flipped using this stuff.

Anyway, I would think products like these are hurting the plumbing industry. new housing is down, and if people can do their own 'fix-it' plumbing in their homes...

ElectricRebel · 1 year

False. Get an engineering degree. You will have (relative) job security and high pay. The reason college stats are so fucked up is because too many people get bullshit degrees.

andrewd · 1 year

Bachelors in something bs, then true.

hughk · 1 year

The question which is independent of whether you enter a skilled trade or a profession, is really whether there will be someone prepared to pay for your services where you are prepared to work.

If your skill depends on something variable in the economy like construction then you will have a problem at the moment. There is some renovation but it won't help you establish yourself. Welding is a bit more generally useful because it is applicable also to automotive repair.

Funnily enough I do know someone who went through art school and ended up working mostly doing welding. He had take sculpture with metal as a specialisation and it means that even if he can't get an art project, he can at least work as a welder. I know another who studied IT but he did welding via night school (surprisingly cheaper than an academic option) because he wanted to learn to build some things. He has done some welding jobs but obviously can''t do the very specialised stuff as it was nowhere near his course.

I also know I guy who sometimes works as a contract Business Analyst, the other times he acts (he has been on TV), does some standup comedy and so on. The point being that it really helps if you can do more than one thing.

stev_meli · 1 year

I would definitely have to say that "it depends" like some others here. I would say it depends on the skills you already possess as well as the future prospects of the labor market. It is true that manual trades will always be in demand and it is true that such a profession is nothing to scoff at, you can make good money doing it.

The only thing I would add is that if you learn the skills but also have an entrepreneurial spirit, you could start your own business. You may find this prospect much more lucrative in the long term.

djimbob · 1 year

Definitely false in the aggregate if you just compare employment/salary statistics, e.g., comparing all people of the high school/associate's degree categories vs all 4-year bachelors. The one problem with this type of analysis, is that people going to 4-year college may be more highly motivated than people who don't.

E.g., I went to physics grad school but now work in a field only tangentially related to physics and had no trouble finding a good job. Is it because I have my education, or is it because I am hard-working/intelligent/independent worker? Likely some combination: people with grad degrees get paid more (in aggregate) because they are more valuable for being smart/hard-working and able to work solve problems independently. However, in applying for jobs having the grad degree helps employers identify you as a valuable hire. (And you do learn some good stuff in grad school that translates well.)

stomp_stompclap · 1 year

Oh look, another person who believes everything they see on TV.

All of my friends that graduated university this May found jobs, and we're in central florida, one of the supposedly "worst hit by the recession" areas.

Don't believe the hype.

caferrell · 1 year

True, and a lot less debt.

The person with a trade also has a much better platform from which to launch his own small business.

With a four year college degree you're just going to be an employee, with a two degree as an electrician, maybe not.

[deleted] · 1 year

Car mechanic is where it's at right now. Good mechanics are making a fortune right now.

cubicboy · 1 year

True. A skilled trade will always have work, since people can't live in houses that are flooded, or with no electricity, or with no running water, or no sewer.

tingmakpuk · 1 year

The August 9th, Time Magazine, Karabell column claims that unemployment among the college educated is 4.4% -- about half of the unemployment of the general population.

mckirkus · 1 year

I got a practical degree (finance) from a pretty good state school after transferring from a JC.

I graduated with $6k in student loan debt. I now work with people from Ivy league schools. Nobody gives a damn but the Ivy leaguers do tend to drive crappier cars.

I needed a degree to get my job (project manager, software) but they didn't really care where I got it. So if you're young; go to college, meet interesting people, learn something practical that you like, work hard, do it cheap.

nickellis14 · 1 year

False.

cmd_iii · 1 year

On the surface, I would say true, if only because it's impossible to outsource a clogged toilet to another country, but the truth of the matter is there are good points and bad points to everything. Learning a trade, in building, mechanics, and so forth, will give you more bang for the buck, tuition-wise, than most four-year colleges. You may not be paid as much as, say, a medical specialist, but you won 't have a quarter-million (US$) or so of debt to work off when you graduate, either. Plus, apprenticeships and so forth are paid, which helps defray costs a bit.

On the other hand, you'll end up working in all sorts of conditions, dragging pipe/cable/lumber/whatever through long distances and around corners and such. You'll have to invest in costly tools, equipment and supplies, and maintain an inventory of parts and/or a network of steady suppliers (Home Depot does not count).

Plan on making money earlier than the college grads living on your block, but make sure you're socking more away for a retirement that will likely come a decade or so sooner than your peers -- this is not pleasant work for those much north of age 50.

Regardless of the path you choose, it should end in something that you love to do. Tradesperson or professional, you will be known for your ability (or lack thereof) to provide quality work in a timely manner. People don't mind paying a little extra to get the job done right. The better you are at what you do, the more likely you'll remain employed, regardless of the economic climate.

UDontHave2BAnything · 1 year

TRUE!!!

Learn how to do something that people will pay money for. That's the key.

BUT - that means bachelor's in engineering and a couple others might not be so bad.

lapone1 · 1 year

I don't think that's true. Those jobs have become more nonunion and are paying less and less.

jcoyote · 1 year

Sadly, true. Welcome to America, dumbasses.

matlick · 1 year

Sometimes. An English degree is not going to be worth it. But if their ultimate plan is med school or law school, I couldn't advise someone to be a plumber instead.

brjohnson789 · 1 year

enh, probably true. You'll have better job security, but will never get higher than middle class. By going to college you have a chance of moving in to upper middle class. Woo-hoo!

tooblecane · 1 year

There are two routes you can choose that will give you greater job security regardless of your chosen profession. 1) Jack of all trades - requires you to have at least a modicum of knowledge about all aspects of your chosen profession. It has a downside of taking years of experience to achieve, but when there is a lack of demand for one aspect of your field you can switch easily to another with little training. 2) Specialization - the more you choose to specialize within a certain area of your chosen vocation, the more likely you are to keep your job since you will be one of the very few that know how to do it. This is quicker, but of puts in you risk of being made quickly redundant by new technologies or practices that render your specialization moot.

negatifzeo · 1 year

If all you care about is money and job security, then by all means go to a vocational school. In general you will get a much better return on your investment compared to the time put in and the cost. It's not all about job security and money though. A four year degree truly does give a nice, well-rounded education that will benefit your personal growth. If you've got the means to do it, why not go to a four year school first, and if that doesn't work out you can always spend two more years at vocational school.

megabucks · 1 year

Not only true, but you'll make far more money much faster as well.

Imagine owning your own home by your mid-20's along with a nice car, while your post secondary college/university friends are trying to make ends meet on a crappy job and student loans.

satsujin_akujo · 1 year

True.

insomniac84 · 1 year

For any good major, no.

But for most majors, yes.

A trade is better than any non engineering, non computer related major.

burdalane · 1 year

I think it depends on the person. I lack dexterity and wouldn't like physical labor. I'm also physically weak. On top of that, my parents would probably have had a fit if I had chosen to go to vocational school because I got into some of the top colleges in the country, and also because I am not at all a hands-on person.

[deleted] · 1 year

What are you, 18? Thinking about college? Yes, an in-demand vocation has always been a good way to go. When speaking of vocations, don't forget the big ones: doctor, lawyer, nurse, teacher.

[deleted] · 1 year

All depends - have they started using cheap imported foreign workers for these fields yet? If not, you can bet they will soon.

Sheetrkr · 1 year

Depends on how many immigrants get there before you!!! :/

haiduz · 1 year

Well if your goal in life is to have a steady low paying job sure you can a plumber for living. However if you to be a well educated and rounded person and want to have potenial to succeed in a field of study that doesn't involve maintenc of toilets and sockets, but requires actual thought then you probably want to go to college. There aren't too many facinsting and highly accomplished plumbers out there. Mostly all leaders in our society are college educated and b choosing the job scurity of a plumber, you remove yourself from that pool (Joe the plumber excluding).

Typed on phone (typos)

chiguy · 1 year

True.

I took first year electrical training in 2006. 2 months of training cost me $2700.00.

I got a job right after as an apprentice electrician in Ft. McMurray Alberta Canada.

I made $120,000 that year + the company flew me home on my days off.

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